Numbers to Consider in 2012
by Tom Donelson on October 3, 2011 at 9:19 AM
Here are some numbers to consider. Approximately, thirty percent of African-Americans view themselves as conservative, but as Jay Cost observed, Republicans are lucky to gain ten percent of those votes. What if Republicans garnered seventy percent of those votes? We are talking Republicans grabbing at least twenty-one percent of African-American votes, and we are one third to Herman Cain's goal of hitting thirty-three percent of African voters. If a Republican could get forty percent of African-American moderates, something that they do routinely with the general population, we are talking Republicans garnering close to forty percent of the total African-American votes!
In 1960, Richard Nixon obtained thirty-five percent of black voters and even in 1972, Nixon still managed eighteen percent of Black voters, the most a Republican has managed to receive since then. As late as 1992, center right candidates combined for seventeen percent. The point is that Republicans should be able to manage to gain more than ten percent of Black votes routinely.
Republicans can even count on one out of four gay voters in spite of Republicans' stance on same sex marriage and other issues that gays consider important.
Resurgent Republic noted in a recent study that between forty-two to forty-five percent Hispanics identify themselves as conservative in key battleground states of Colorado, New Mexico and Florida. However, only in Florida do the majority of conservative Hispanics vote Republican. In both New Mexico and Colorado, only forty-five to forty-six percent of Hispanic conservatives are prepared to vote Republican. While Hispanic conservatives in these key battleground states are more likely to vote for Republicans when compared to Black conservative voters, they still are more reluctant than conservatives overall to vote for Republicans.
Just as with Black voters, Republicans are having trouble getting those within the Hispanics who are friendly to their agenda to vote for them. If Republicans can’t even count on conservatives within minority communities to vote for them, it is hard, if not impossible, to gain traction within the minority communities overall.
Bottom line, just getting a higher percentage of conservative minorities to vote Republican would go a long way to increase support within those communities. Only in Florida, do Republicans have success with attracting Hispanic voters, and this is much due to Cuban-American impact in Florida. Bottom line, get your allies to vote for you and you might just do enough to win.