What Do Voters Think of Immigration?

Americas Majority Foundation, an organization that I work with, held several polls over the past three months, including post-election polls. In August, the foundation polled 1100 Hispanics, and in a national post-election poll, polled 1000 whites, 1000 blacks and 1000 Hispanics. Finally we polled black and Hispanic voters in New Mexico, Wisconsin, North Carolina and Illinois: states where America's PAC was involved. (We polled 3500 Hispanic voters in three states: Illinois, Wisconsin and New Mexico, and 2800 black voters in two states: Wisconsin and North Carolina.)

What do voters think of immigration? Good question, and our data shows some interesting things. In our August Hispanic poll, 49% of Hispanics believed in a path to citizenship while another 16% do support illegals to stay in the country in a manner that does not include a pathway to citizenship. 20% want border security first with the rest supporting other ideas or not knowing what they support.

The most interesting aspect of our August poll is that we asked Hispanics whether the children who came across the border should stay. 80 % said yes, but three out of five did not support those children being placed in their neighborhoods.

In our exit polls, 37% of Illinois and Wisconsin Hispanics and 32% of New Mexico Hispanics supported a pathway to citizenship, whereas 20% of New Mexico Hispanics along with17% of Wisconsin Hispanics and 18% of Illinois Hispanics support allowing illegals to stay but with no pathway to citizenship. 29% of Illinois and Wisconsin Hispanics and 27% of New Mexico Hispanics believe in border security first with the rest supporting other options.

32% of black voters in Wisconsin and 39% of North Carolina black voters supported a pathway to citizenship for illegals, while 18% of Wisconsin blacks and 20% of North Carolina blacks support illegals staying in the nation without a pathway to citizenship. 26% of Wisconsin blacks and 16% of North Carolina blacks said no reforms until the border is secure.

In our National poll, 36% of Hispanic voters and 33% of black voters support a pathway to citizenship for illegals while only slightly less than 23% of whites support a pathway to citizenship. 23% of Hispanics and 17% of blacks will support allowing illegals to stay while only 14% of whites support this option.

45% of whites want border security first before any reforms, whereas only 26% of Hispanics and 27% of black voters support this option while the rest supported other options.

These polls were done before Obama’s executive order, but our poll in August saw 47% of Hispanics oppose executive order while 44% supported the use of executive order. Both the majority of white and black voters viewed immigrants as taking jobs away, whereas Hispanics said that immigration added to the job pool and overall economy.

Wile the majority of Hispanics did not support a pathway to citizenship for illegals, the majority did support options that allowed Hispanics to stay in America. Our post-election national poll asked the question whether immigration reform should only follow secured borders, but this could be interpreted as supporting immigration reform if the border is secure. This is a tricky issue to maneuver around for the GOP for many Hispanics do agree with Republicans on a wide variety of issues but immigration for many Hispanics is personal since at least 40% know someone here illegally.

The Democrats will use immigration reform and Obama's executive order as a wedge issue to drive Hispanics in big numbers back to the Democrats. Many Republicans did very well among Hispanics so the Democrats would not want to see an election in which 60% of whites and nearly 40% of Hispanics vote Republican. However, Republicans need to watch how they phrase their opposition to Obama’s executive order. Romney asking illegals to “self-deport” hurt his campaign. Words matter and this is an issue that can hurt Republicans among Hispanic voters and also within their own base, which wants border security before any reforms are attempted.