Herman Cain, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, and Newt Gingrich in 4-Way Statistical Tie in Latest Iowa Caucus Voter Poll
A recent Bloomberg News poll shows a statistical four-way tie among voters likely to attend the Iowa Presidential Caucuses in January. Herman Cain is at 20%, Ron Paul is at 19%, Mitt Romney is at 18%, and Newt Gingrich is at 17%.
This is a stark contrast from the way Iowans voted in August's Iowa Straw Poll, in which Cain was in fifth with 9% of the vote, Paul was in second with 28% of the vote, Romney was in seventh with 3% of the vote, and Gingrich was in eighth with 2% of the vote. Michele Bachmann who won the Iowa Straw Poll in August with 29% of the vote has slid down to 5% in the most recent poll.
Although the top candidates are spending less time in Iowa than prior election cycles, likely caucus participants are hearing from them on a regular basis.
Almost a fifth say they have been contacted by six or more of the campaigns through e-mail, direct mail, telephone or by someone coming to their door during the past year. Forty-four percent say they have been contacted by three to five campaigns.
Paul’s campaign leads for voter contact, with about two thirds of respondents saying they’ve heard from his campaign, followed by 61 percent who said they’ve been reached by Bachmann’s campaign.
Bachmann, 55, isn’t getting much benefit from those interactions, converting to supporters just six percent, according to the poll. In contrast, Gingrich’s campaign has made direct contact with 29 percent of likely caucus participants, and converted a third of them to his cause.