Warning! Tea Partiers need to Carefully Weigh the Consequences of Backing Third party Candidates
by Shirley Spellerberg on June 14, 2011 at 1:29 PM
Rasmussen reports that a Tea Party candidate in a three-way congressional race can elect a Democrat
Excerpts from the Rasmussen Report:
In a three-way congressional contest with a Tea Party candidate on the ballot, the Democrat could pick up 40 percent of the vote. The Republican would get 21 percent, 18 percent would opt for the tea party candidate and just over 20 percent remain undecided.
According to a June 9 telephone survey of 1,000 likely voters, Republicans and unaffiliated voters are more likely to be undecided than Democrats. This is a Democrat improvement from early February of last year when the Democrat earned 36 percent to the Republican’s 25 percent and the Tea Party candidate won 17 percent.
In a two-way race, Republicans continue to hold a modest advantage over Democrats on the Generic Congressional Ballot.
Here is the danger from the Tea Party. In the new survey the Tea Party candidate draws 28 percent support from GOP voters while 85 percent of the Democrats back their party’s candidate. Only 45 percent of Republicans support the Republican candidate in the three-way matchup. Among unaffiliated voters with either of the parties, 15 percent like the Republican, 29 percent the Democrat and 25 percent the Tea Party candidate.
Only 16 percent of all voters now consider themselves members of the Tea Party movement which is down from 21 percent at the end of 2010. Nearly 70 percent say they are not members while another 15 percent are not sure. (End of Rasmussen report)
The call to ‘throw them all out’ is an emotional and unthinking reaction which can, and probably will backfire. The frustration-driven conservative voter is tired of politics as usual and desperately wants a change in congress. No doubt we need to rid the GOP of RINOS, but if we are not careful, we can wind up with a Democrat instead if we split the general election vote three-ways. Conservatives need to support the conservative Republican candidate who can win in the Primary and General Election. A three-way Primary could lead to the re-election of the RINO or the Democrat in November. (See the statistical voter breakdown outlined by Rasmussen.)
As a member of the Tea Party, I am working to rebuild the constitutional conservative base of the Republican Party. That approach is far more preferable than reaching out to a Third Party candidate or a split-vote between conservatives in the Primary and winding up with a Democrat. I sincerely hope other Tea Partiers will seriously consider the risk in a three-way congressional race.