Michael Medved: Why Obama Is Still the Favorite in 2012/Immigration Follies

There is an article Thursday in The Wall Street Journal by Michael Medved that points to how though Republicans are likely to fare well this November, Democratic plans and the demographic trends they are counting on exploiting, make the prospects of Obama’s reelection in 2012 relatively promising.

Michael Medved is one of two talk radio hosts that I listen to regularly. Though I count myself as somewhat to the right of Michael Medved (coarse and relatively ambiguous as such “left-right” language is), Medved is thoroughly conservative in his understanding and articulation of what does and does not actually work, socially. He is historically informed as no one else in media and undaunted by the most furious liberal bluster. I think he would call it practicality, but I’m less inclined to neglect a clear statement of truth even if political “experts” say it’s ill-advised, believing that truth has its own powers if stated clearly, whether it wins or loses in the short term. Though he does acknowledge that The United States today is in a very precarious condition, he still seems a little more sanguine about our long-term prospects than I am. I have to admit though, that one might be very careful about cultivating a reputation as talk-radio’s Dr. Doom.

As 10 weeks out is still a bit too early to count Republican chickens for November, it is way too early right now to calculate the extent to which events may improve or deteriorate Obama’s reelection potential in 2012. In fact, it is possible that a complete Republican takeover of Congress and a subsequent improvement of the business and capital investment environment, could actually save Obama’s political bacon in 2012, just as it did Bill Clinton’s in 1996. Even today, Clinton is credited with producing an energetic economy in the 1990’s while raising taxes in the process, even though it was the Gingrich-led revolution in Congress of 1994, that restrained spending and the left-wing legislative inclination. And, as presidents are, President Clinton benefitted in 1994.

On the other hand, the inevitable dire consequences of our unfathomable debt, the 100+ trillion dollar shortfall of mostly entitlement liabilities vs. assets, and the uncertainty of American dollar and bond values, might make Obama’s prospects in 2012 nearly impossible irrespective of what Republicans do. I don’t even discount the possibilities of hyper-inflation or outright default between now and then, both of which portend economic trouble like we have never seen in our lifetimes.

But particularly on the point of the futility of conservatives who yowl about their disgust about illegal immigrants they say ought to be arrested and deported, not to mention the very questionable grace of such talk, Medved is exactly on point. It is beyond wearisome for me to watch as posts on this Blog about constitutional principles that these Democrats in power flout seem to draw a relative yawn of attention, while any mention of immigration draws a chorus of howling and bleating about not understanding the meaning of “illegal.” We fully well understand both the lexicographic and the vernacular meaning of “illegal,” while these complainers appear opaque on the legal distinction between “criminal” and “civil” violations as well as the character distinction between a scheming violator of another’s life and property and a refugee from a relatively very poor nation who plots a course through a miserable and untended immigration system in order to better provide for themselves and/or their families.

What will it take for such people to get serious? 20% unemployment? The total completion of the murder of the American social value system that historically held our society and communities together, if it isn’t complete already? Honestly, all of this shallow immigration screeching strikes me as like a man with a terminal illness who cannot stop loudly howling to apply some effective medication to his badly inflamed hemorrhoids. Again, Medved’s article is at Michael Medved: Why Obama Is Still the Favorite in 2012