Is The Arizona Senate Race Previewing A Problem For Texas 2020?

The recent victory of Democrat Kyrsten Sinema's in the Arizona Senate race was an upset. This was the first time a Democrat was elected from Arizona since 1988! So are there lessons here for Texas?

Given Senator Ted Cruz's close victory by less than 3 percent, yes. Compare that to six years ago when Cruz won by 16 percent. Things are not going in the right direction.

So back to Arizona, a traditional conservative border state with a growing Hispanic population similar to Texas, here are the lessons for us!

  1. Shifting Demographics - Arizona and Texas both have growing population & both seem to be growing Democrats. These voters are generally younger, more ethnic, more female, more educated, and tech-employed, all of which are not President Donald Trump's fans.
  2. Health Care Pre-existing Conditions - This is an issue where the Democrats played it up and the GOP in Arizona had no answers.
  3. The Campaigns Really Matter - In Arizona, Sinema had no real opposition in the Democratic Primary and she could define herself early as a cheerful personality candidate and continued it through the general election. Note this is how Robert O'Rourke played it until September when Ted Cruz finally fully engaged him.
  4. Trump Gives and Takes Away - While President Donald Trump helped in a GOP Primary for Martha McSally, he also hurt her with swing voters like suburban women and centrist moderates in the fall, so Martha McSally lost to a former radical left winger who morphed into a moderate and got away with it.

It appears the O'Rourke team is now returning for 2020. Already, supporters are keeping their 'Beto' signs up, adding 2020.

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