Is The Arizona Senate Race Previewing A Problem For Texas 2020?
by Gary Polland on December 20, 2018 at 5:07 AM
The recent victory of Democrat Kyrsten Sinema's in the Arizona Senate race was an upset. This was the first time a Democrat was elected from Arizona since 1988! So are there lessons here for Texas?
Given Senator Ted Cruz's close victory by less than 3 percent, yes. Compare that to six years ago when Cruz won by 16 percent. Things are not going in the right direction.
So back to Arizona, a traditional conservative border state with a growing Hispanic population similar to Texas, here are the lessons for us!
- Shifting Demographics - Arizona and Texas both have growing population & both seem to be growing Democrats. These voters are generally younger, more ethnic, more female, more educated, and tech-employed, all of which are not President Donald Trump's fans.
- Health Care Pre-existing Conditions - This is an issue where the Democrats played it up and the GOP in Arizona had no answers.
- The Campaigns Really Matter - In Arizona, Sinema had no real opposition in the Democratic Primary and she could define herself early as a cheerful personality candidate and continued it through the general election. Note this is how Robert O'Rourke played it until September when Ted Cruz finally fully engaged him.
- Trump Gives and Takes Away - While President Donald Trump helped in a GOP Primary for Martha McSally, he also hurt her with swing voters like suburban women and centrist moderates in the fall, so Martha McSally lost to a former radical left winger who morphed into a moderate and got away with it.
It appears the O'Rourke team is now returning for 2020. Already, supporters are keeping their 'Beto' signs up, adding 2020.