Donald Trump and the Forgotten American

As an Iowan, I will be part of the first wave of voters determining who will be the Republican nominee. As someone who will not be voting for Donald Trump, I do have a few observations. A Democratic friend of mine mentioned how her sister is voting for Donald Trump. When I ask what attracted Trump to her sister, she mentioned, “She is a blue collar and Trump appeals to her because of his stance on immigration as well as she thinks that Trump can change things. She is Trump’s audience.” My friend noticed what I have noticed and seen through polling data: Trump's appeal is beyond the traditional Republican to independents and moderates, most of them blue collar. They are not social conservatives, and they are not necessarily conservatives.

As I have mentioned in previous reports about Donald Trump, he is a candidate with conservative instincts, but his view is more moderate than either Rubio or Cruz, in particular in foreign affairs where he has not rejected Obama's present Iranian structure but simply wants to make it better. His view that the present Middle East is the result of Bush’s invasion of Iraq mirrors Bernie Sanders, and his view on trade also matches the protectionist views of Sanders.

Trump is as contradictory a candidate we have seen in modern time. Just a month ago, he told Bill O’ Reilly that we should allow Syrian refugees, but now he is for a “ban on allowing Muslims in the country,” and it was just in the last election, he was to the left of Rubio and the gang of eight on immigration reform, but now he gives voters the impression that he is to the right of Ann Coulter. However, this is not a complete picture.

His stance on immigration is actually a variation of a plan from moderate Republican Kay Bailey Hutchinson, who proposed a “touchback” where an illegal immigrant needs to cross over to Mexico and then come back with a green card. The reality is that under Trump, the majority of illegals here today will be here after his immigration reforms are put in place. One can argue about how practical the idea of transporting 10 million plus illegals and returning them back to the United States, but the reality is that the result of a Trump’s immigration plan will be similar to a Rubio or Bush plan as far as the illegals are concern.

Trump is a nationalist populist but what he is not is a fascist, a Nazi, or a racist. He is not even the most conservative candidate in the Republican race. What he is doing is selling a plan that promises to give the middle class a fair shake. As someone who works in the political process, I have the opportunity to poll thousands of voters and what our organization has found is that majority of Americans, including many minorities, view that increase spending proposed by Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders hurts their chances to succeed. They also understand that our weak economy hurts our ability to affect events overseas, and they are simply sick and tired of America being pushed around and treated as a punching bag by ISIS, Iran and Putin. And they view that the system is rigged against them.

Trump has tapped into this by telling these voters that he will create opportunities and jobs because he has done it all his life, and he refuses to bend to the Republican establishment. For many of these voters, they are perfectly willing to let the whole edifice simply burn down if Trump doesn’t win. Trump's success is that he is appealing to a forgotten American who is invisible to much of the Washington establishment, who has seen their income and overall wealth drop since 2000 under two different administrations. Republicans, instead of plotting against Trump, may find that defeating Trump means letting the forgotten American know that that they are no longer invisible.

As for Trump, he is our weakest candidate in a one on one match up with Hillary Clinton when compared to Cruz, Carson and Rubio, even though the Real Clear Politics average still has Trump within the margin of error. His weakness among Hispanics will cost us a shot at winning Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and Florida, which George Bush carried in 2004. This means we are allowing 49 Electoral College votes on the table and means we have to go elsewhere to find 63 Electoral College votes elsewhere from our 2012 total. Trump's strategy will be moved in another direction by attracting white blue collars workers like my Democratic friend’s sister. This means Trump goes after Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Wisconsin and Iowa in states that white blue collar voters play a significant role. Trump will argue that he is in position to take these states and even add increased black voters enough to hurt the Democrats in these states. This also leaves even less of a margin of error than what Rubio or even Cruz have since both candidates have significantly more support among Hispanics than Trump. They have the option of adding southwestern states that both McCain and Romney lost, and this is one reason they do better in head to head than Trump.

The other problem with Trump is that he is a populist but he is also an unknown factor since we don’t really know what a Trump administration would look like. As mentioned in previous columns, my observation is that Trump's views are a contradiction and that there is no real set of ideas or proposals that guide him compared to Rubio and Cruz. One gets the impression that much of Trump campaign is done on a spur of the moment as opposed to truly thought out. One day, he is willing to allow Syria refugees in but the next week he is banning everyone. There is an impulsive nature that exists, and the debates have shown that Trump is not as informed on issues as Rubio, Cruz or Fiorina. In his book, America Cripple, he admits that he will bring in experts to deal with these issues, but this also leaves the question of who are those advisors?

There are issues that Trump has been inconsistent including health care issues, tax issues, and on immigration, but he has been consistent on one issue: he is a protectionist and he has been a crony capitalist as a businessman. As Jonah Goldberg observed,

“Richard Nixon is an even better example. Not counting Barack Obama, Nixon was arguably the most liberal president since LBJ. He came from the progressive wing of the GOP (back when there really was one). In 1965 he told reporters that the “Buckleyites” (i.e., William F. Buckley and his crowd at National Review, where I work) were a “threat more menacing” to the GOP than the John Birch Society. He told his aide John C. Whitaker, “There is only one thing as bad as a far-left liberal and that’s a damn right-wing conservative.”

Many conservatives who have promoted Trump might have asked how they envision the future of the conservative movement and how Trump’s ideas fit in? Trump has hit a nerve, and his instinct has been to reach out to the forgotten American, similar to Richard Nixon going after the silent majority.

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