How Clinton Plans to Win
by Tom Donelson on June 22, 2015 at 2:01 PM
Part of political operative's job is to know the opponent's record and MO. In the case of the Clintons, they have a quarter of a century's history of operation and we also have the history of the Democratic left's strategy, so it is not hard to dissect what Clinton's strategy will be. Team Hillary's strategy is not to just win an election but to win a decisive victory and cement her mandate while cementing the left's hold on policy. Plus a decisive victory add seats to the house and recaptures the Senate.
For Hillary’s campaign, their strategy is two-fold, the first being to maximize minority voters. In 2012, the number of minority voters made up 28 percent of all voters, and it is the belief of Democratic strategists that minority voters will make up 30 to 31% of the voting population, and they are expecting Clinton to repeat what Obama did in 2012 by garnering 70 percent plus of both Asians and Hispanics plus 95% of Black voters, but she is shooting for increased votes from white voters in particular among single white females. Republicans have gained ground among single white females in both 2012 and 2014 as Republicans reduced Obama's margin from 2008 by eighteen points. If Republicans don’t get at least 60% of White voters, they have no chance of winning, and if Hillary can garner close to what Obama received from 2008, she can shave an additional three to five points from White voters and this will lead to a massive victory across the board.
Clinton is not invulnerable and her drop in the polling is proof as the disclosure surrounding Clinton’s Foundation shows how the Clintons enriched themselves from the foundation and donation from foreign entities who had business in front of Clinton’s state department. Clinton has a serious character problem as voters simply don’t trust her, but despite that, she is still viewed as a leader, despite her failure as Secretary of State.
Don’t underestimate the desire of many women to vote for the first woman president, a point that Hillary Clinton is banking on. Clinton’s weakness is her record, and as I have mention in a previous column, there are plenty of Republicans who have superior resumes and records compared to Clinton, including those younger senators like Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio.
Another aspect that favors Republicans is that Obama’s record has been dismal in foreign affairs, and he has a mediocre economic record as we have witnessed a recovery that has seen the middle class and family income drop from 2007, with more Americans requiring food stamps and slipping into poverty. Labor participation rates have dropped, and this is not due to baby boomers retiring but many who should be in the prime of their working career have quit the work force. Clinton has moved to the left, but it is up to Republicans to make the case that Clintonomics will be as big a failure as Obamanomics.
The mythology of Bill Clinton’s recovery during the 90’s still reign the minds of many voters who view the 90s as the good time, but the reality is that Bill Clinton was forced to the right on economic issues as Hillarycare was rejected by voters and never passed, allowing the Republicans to recapture Congress in the 1994 mid-term elections. After 1994, Clinton cut capital gains taxes, put a lid on spending, real welfare reform passed to go with expansion of trade, a position that his wife is walking away from. The Clintons' treasury encouraged a strong and stable dollar and inflation was kept under control. There were issues that would come back to hurt the overall economy as the Clintons encouraged relaxation of lending standards to allow more Americans to buy homes, and this was continued through Bush’s years. These decisions would have an impact a decade later, but the seeds were laid in the Clinton years. Democrats have abandoned growth oriented policies and are now emphasizing inequality over job creation. Even Democratic pollsters see their own voters supporting job creation over the politics of envy. (It is true that Bill Clinton raised taxes in his first two years, but the biggest growth of the Clintons' years came after the Clinton administration worked with Speaker Gingrich.)
Hillary's advantage is that much of the mainstream media favors her over Republicans, and as I have mentioned in a previous column, many Democrats voters have no clue about the scandal of the Clinton Foundation and much of the mainstream media has failed to cover much of the Clinton scandals. And with so many Republican candidates running, it will take nearly a year before a serious challenger is declared. Of course much can happen and Bernie Sanders is now within striking distance in New Hampshire, so Democratic voters may issue their own judgement that maybe Hillary is not the one.