See Here Live: Does Pelosi Have 216 Votes?

The National Republican Congressional Committee CODE RED website has it scored:

212 NO
212 YES
216 YES needed.

Democrats say they have the votes. Do they? Who will be the deciding vote? 

Futile questions from Republicans:  If this is such a great bill for Americans, why will this bill hire 17,000 IRS agents to force everyone to join it and pay fines if they don’t?  

And if this bill is so “life-affirming” why is the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops begging lawmakers not to vote for the bill because it allows federal funding for abortions?

CLICK HERE FOR LIVE C-SPAN COVERAGE which will gavel in at 12 p.m. (EST) 

Here is what will be voted on, in what order, from CBS News:

Here is a rough estimate of the timing for Sunday’s votes:  (All times EST)

2 p.m.: The House will debate for one hour the rules of debate for the reconciliation bill and the Senate bill.

3 p.m.: The House will vote to end debate and vote on the rules of the debate.

3:15 p.m.: The House will debate the reconciliation package for two hours.

5:15 p.m.: The House will vote on the reconciliation package.

5:30 p.m.: The House will debate for 15 minutes on a Republican substitute and then vote on the substitute.

6 p.m.: The House will vote on the final reconciliation package.

6:15 p.m.: If the reconciliation bill passes, the House will immediately vote on the Senate bill, without debate.

Chad Pergram from Fox News has more explanation of the voting today and who to watch:

Some things to look for:

The magic number 216, because the House currently only has 431 members. Democrats have 253 seats. That means they can lose no more than 37 of their own members and expect to pass the bills, if they get no assistance from the Republican side of the aisle.

Democrats are trying to round up the final votes to get them to the finish line. Here’s a list of the folks that the whip team is going to get in the closing hours. They fall in to a few different categories, and while they have similarities – at this point – every member is an island.

Retirees: These lawmakers are not running for reelection. So Democrats may try to convince them that they have nothing to lose by voting for reform (cf. Gordon, Bart).

Brian Baird (WA): A progressive, he opposed the bill from the left. Voted no in November. John Tanner (TN): He’s a fiscally-conscious Blue Dog. Voted no in November. Marion Berry (AR). While he was a yes last time, it’s not clear that he is this time.

Committee Chairs: These senior lawmakers wield a gavel. So the leadership has some leverage over them on tough votes. One does not become a committee chair by opposing their party’s agenda.

Ike Skelton (MO): Chairman of the House Armed Services panel. He represents a swing district.  Voted no in November. Nick Rahall (WV): Chairman of the House Natural Resources Committee. He co-sponsored the Stupak resolution to strike the Nelson abortion language from the bill and insert the Stupak language.  The Speaker put the kibosh on that. And it’s unclear if that’s enough to get Rahall to vote no this time around. Rahall voted yes in the fall. Collin Peterson (MN): Chairman of the House Agriculture Committee. He’s a strong pro-lifer. Voted no in November.

Freshmen: Many of these lawmakers represent swing districts. And perhaps they think that opposing the bill will help them back home.

Frank Kratovil (MD): A freshman in a tough swing district. Voted no in the fall. Steve Driehaus (OH): A freshman in a typically Republican district. Voted yes in the fall. Tom Perriello (VA): A freshman who won in perhaps the biggest upset of 2008. Voted yes in the fall. Michael McMahon (D): Represents Staten Island and flipped the district from Republican to Democratic in 2008.

Stupak’s Team: These are lawmakers who have trouble with the bill due to abortion provisions.

Kathy Dahlkemper (PA): A freshman in a tough district. Voted yes in the fall. Marcy Kaptur (OH): A co-sponsor on the failed last minute Stupak resolution. Voted yes in the fall. From a safe district.

Lawmakers they’d like to have: These are lawmakers who the Speaker wants, but probably can’t get.

Chet Edwards (TX): A “cardinal” who chairs the Military Quality of Life Appropriations Subcommittee. Very moderate. Voted no in the fall. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (SD): The only female Democrat to oppose the fall bill. Artur Davis (AL): The only African American Democrat to oppose the bill. But Davis is retiring to run for governor.

Wild Card: These are lawmakers who could be “hip-pocket” votes for the Speaker. In other words, in case of emergency, please break glass. They have remained undeclared on their votes.

Rick Boucher (VA): Still undecided. But ran unopposed last fall. Virginia is trending Republican again and he could have his first real race since the 1980s.

Two Notes: Democrats have lost two “no's” since November. Former Rep. Eric Massa (D-NY) resigned. Rep. Parker Griffith (R-AL) switched parties and became a Republican in December after the vote.

List of Democratic “No's” from November:

Adler (NJ)  NJ  Altmire  PA  Baird  WA  Barrow  GA  Boccieri  OH  Boren  OK  Boucher  VA  Boyd  FL  Bright  AL  Chandler  KY  Childers  MS  Davis (AL)  AL  Davis (TN)  TN    Member Name  State  Edwards (TX)  TX  Gordon (TN)  TN  Griffith  AL  Herseth Sandlin  SD  Holden  PA  Kissell  NC  Kosmas  FL  Kratovil  MD  Kucinich  OH  Markey (CO)  CO  Marshall  GA  Massa  NY  Matheson  UT      Member Name  State  McIntyre  NC    McMahon  NY  Melancon  LA  Minnick  ID  Murphy (NY)  NY  Nye  VA  Peterson  MN  Ross  AR  Shuler  NC  Skelton  MO  Tanner  TN  Taylor  MS  Teague  NM


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