Texas Statewide Poll Projects Huge Victory & Significant Historical Achievement For Governor Greg Abbott in 2018 November Election

Incumbent Republican Texas Governor Greg Abbott leads his Democrat opponent by a whopping 29% according to the state's oldest and most reliable statewide survey project- the Texas Interested Citizens (TIC) Survey.  Started in 1989, the TIC Survey is independently funded by professional and trade organizations and has correctly surveyed all gubernatorial elections in Texas from 1990 through 2014.  Its results are frequently published in both national and international press.

This year, the Texas Interested Citizens Survey project interviewed 1,200 voters across the state with live telephone interviews from September 15-24. The survey found 58% of Texas voters supporting Republican Greg Abbott vs. 29% for Democrat Lupe Valdez vs. 3% for Libertarian Mark Tippetts vs. 10% of voters being undecided.

History in the making for Governor Abbott

Based on election prediction modeling, the survey then analyzed the undecided voters in the Governor's race and projected Governor Abbott winning in November with 62.2% of the statewide vote. In 2014, the September TIC poll correctly predicted the outcome of the Texas governor's race by .39 of one percent.

If Governor Abbott does surpass the 60% vote mark, the Texas Interested Citizens Survey project says Abbott will become the first Texas elected official (from nationhood to statehood) who has held three different statewide offices and received 60% or higher voter support for each office.

According to the TIC project, the group of Texas leaders who have held three statewide offices is small and includes among others Sam Houston (Texas first President and later a Texas US Senator and Governor), Rick Perry (Texas Agriculture Commissioner, Lt. Governor and Governor), John Cornyn (Supreme Court Justice, Texas Attorney General and US Senator) and Greg Abbott (Texas Supreme Court Justice, Texas Attorney General and Texas Governor).

Breakdown of 2018 Texas Governor's race

Abbott winning in all regions of the state (including historically DEM regions)

West Texas/PH: 74% Abbott vs. 12% Valdez vs. 9% Tippetts vs. 5% Undecided

Central Texas: 68% Abbott vs. 23% Valdez vs. 2% Tippetts vs. 8% Undecided

East Texas: 67% Abbott vs. 22% Valdez vs. 3% Tippetts vs. 9% Undecided

Gulf Coast: 64% Abbott vs. 27% Valdez vs. 0% Tippetts vs. 9% Undecided

Metroplex West: 63% Abbott vs. 26% Valdez vs. 5% Tippetts vs. 7% Undecided

Greater San Antonio: 59% Abbott vs. 31% Valdez vs. 2% Tippetts vs. 9% Undecided

Greater Houston: 55% Abbott vs. 30% Valdez vs. 2% Tippetts vs. 14% Undecided

El Paso/The Border: 55% Abbott vs. 38% Valdez vs. 3% Tippetts vs. 5% Undecided

Metroplex East:  49% Abbott vs. 38% Valdez vs. 4% Tippetts vs. 9% Undecided

Greater Austin: 45% Abbott vs. 35% Valdez vs. 5% Tippetts vs. 15% Undecided

Abbott in near dead-heat with Hispanic opponent among Hispanic voters

Anglo Voters: 68% Abbott vs. 22% Valdez vs. 2% Tippetts vs. 8% Undecided

Hispanic Voters: 41% Abbott vs. 45% Valdez vs. 4% Tippetts vs. 10% Undecided

Black Voters: 21% Abbott vs. 64% Valdez vs. 2% Tippetts vs. 14% Undecided

Abbott winning decisively with male and female voters

Female Voters: 54% Abbott vs. 31% Valdez vs. 3% Tippetts vs. 12% Undecided

Male Voters: 62% Abbott vs. 27% Valdez vs. 3% Tippetts vs. 8% Undecided

Abbott winning 3:1 among Independent Texas voters

Republican Voters: 94% Abbott vs. 2% Valdez vs. 1% Tippetts vs. 3% Undecided

Democrat Voters: 15% Abbott vs. 69% Valdez vs. 5% Tippetts vs. 11% Undecided

Independent Voters: 52% Abbott vs. 17% Valdez vs. 5% Tippetts vs 26% Undecided

The 1,200 voters interviewed by the 2018 Texas Interested Citizens Survey project reside in 150 of Texas’ 254 counties and voted in either the 2014 or 2016 General Elections, or they were a new voter who participated in either the 2018 Democrat or Republican Primaries. The survey's margin of error is +2.9 percent at a 95% level of confidence. Co-Sponsors of the 2018 TIC project includes the Texas Farm Bureau, Texas Medical Association and Texas Society of Anesthesiologists. Since 1989, the TIC survey project has been conducted by The Eppstein Group, a 36-year old Texas based public affairs and survey research firm with offices in Austin and Fort Worth.

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