2012 Presidential Election: Tallying up the Electoral Votes
by Tom Donelson on October 31, 2012 at 5:38 PM
Who will win the Presidential Election? Good question, but I will make my predictions. Will Hurricane Sandy stall Romney's momentum and give the media yet another excuse not to ask President Obama about Benghazi and why the Administration did nothing to save four American lives? The media has painted the picture of Obama as a great leader during the crisis of Hurricane Sandy, while ignoring the crisis that was Benghazi. So the question is, will the voters forget the four dismal years of economic stewardship, or will the truth of Benghazi overcome the noise of Sandy? I say no.
Consider the following news and then you may see the true nature of the elections. If Gallup is right on the early voting, Romney has taken a six point lead! Considering that the impression was the Democrats were better organized when it comes to early voting, this has got to be a shock and could show that many of those early polls may have overestimated Obama's voter strength.
Now I will tell you that I bet a friend that Romney would win with 300 votes. So will he win those 300 votes and allow me to win my bet? First, Romney will win by a 51-46% vote total, similar to what Gallup has him at. He will have a five point margin at the end of the night.
Now how does he get to 270 plus? Lets begin with 179 Electoral College vote from the state that McCain won, and there is no real chance that he will lose ground from those states. So we can be assured that he will win Indiana and move from there. Ohio is tight, but in a year that the incumbent's policies are less than stellar, the undecided will split in favor of the challenger. Ohio will go Romney along with Wisconsin, where the Republicans have established a ground game due to the various recall elections that the left put the state through. That adds 28 votes that went Obama but will land in Romney camp. While North Carolina, Virginia and Florida are close, even the Democrats are conceding that those states will land in Romney’s camp. That will give Romney an extra 57 votes. So that is 85 votes more than 2008.
Romney has slipped into the lead into Colorado and should add New Hampshire plus Iowa. (Iowa is a 50/50 proposition, but the momentum is with Romney as Des Moines Register actually endorsed Romney, the first Republican President since Nixon it endorsed.) That gives Romney 19 more votes. If my count is correct, that means 294 votes for Romney. Now there are four states left in the mix and what will happen to those states? There are 20 Electoral votes at risk in Pennsylvania. Right now, Team Obama is throwing resources in both Minnesota and Pennsylvania, and this is a danger sign for Obama candidacy if he is campaigning in blue states thought his to begin with. So Pennsylvania is close and is within reach along with Michigan and Minnesota. I don’t see Obama losing Michigan and Minnesota, but Pennsylvania is another question as Republicans swept the state in 2010. I believe that Pennsylvania along with Nevada are both 50/50 propositions. Can Romney take both or one of them? I will give Pennsylvania and Nevada barely to Obama, but I will not be surprised if either or both go Romney. So either Romney will end up with 294 or he will end up with close to 320. I will say now that he could fall below 300 votes, but Romney will be the 45th President elected.