Harris County Republicans Voting Strong - Still Need Your Vote - Analysis of Today's Vote and Early Voting
by Bob Price on November 6, 2012 at 2:44 PM
Election Day voting in Harris County is very stong in traditional Republican polling locations. This according to former Harris County Tax Man, Paul Bettencourt. In a conversation today Bettencourt said we could see voter turnout in strong Republican boxes as high as 80%. That said, this is not a time to sit back. While Hispanic voting boxes in Harris County are somewhat low at this point, other traditional Democrat polling locations have very high turnout as well. This means we need your vote.
Analysis of early voting shows anywhere from a slight Republican lead on early voting to a slight Democrat lead. This is determined by looking at early voters who have Primary Election voting history. However, there was a very strong turnout of early voters with no Primary Election voting history. So that begs the question, how did they vote?
The most recent CNN poll shows Obama and Romney tied nationally with each at 49%. This poll has a Democrat "oversampling" of 11%. What does this oversampling mean? Radio talk show host Rush Limbaugh explained this today on his popular radio show. He explained initially the "oversampling" was thought to be what the pollster reflected as anticipated voter turnout. In other words, 11% more Democrats would turn out to vote than Republicans. However, what it really means is, 11% more Democrats simply responded to the poll than did Republicans. Therefore the 49%-49% tie is not a reliable number.
To get to better detail you must look deeper into the poll. In the poll, according to Limbaugh, of voters who identified themselves as Republican, 99% said they would be voting for Romney. Of those who identified themselves as Democrats, only 95% said they would be voting for Obama. And of the important "independent" voters, they were trending in favor of Romney by a margin of 57%-43%.
If this data is accurate then Romney gets virtually all of the Republican vote, 5% of the Democrat vote and 57% of the independent vote. That sounds a lot like a landslide.
If you take that ratio of independent voters voting Republican and apply it to Harris County early voting numbers, you will see a very strong sweep of Republican candidates. Much larger than predicted by the Houston liberal media who have been blatently trying to help certain Democrats - namely Adrian Garcia and Vince Ryan.
This is your opportunity to prove just how wrong the liberal media is. Andrew Breitbart declared war on the liberal media. You can too today. These polls mean nothing, but rather are just an analysis of what might happen. What counts is your vote in the voting machine. Don't let this opportuntiy be wasted. Send a message! Run up the score! Go Vote!