Poll Shows Ryan Sitton in Strong Position to Win Railroad Commissioner Runoff
Railroad Commissioner candidate Ryan Sitton's campaign recently released poll numbers showing him in a strong position to win the May 27th runoff election. The poll conducted in April 2014 by Baselice & Associates showed that both Sitton and Christian are relatively unknown and most voters are undecided, but when voters hear information about both candidates, Ryan Sitton surges ahead. (Key findings from the survey are listed below.)
What that means in this race is that resources are crucial. Whoever has the ability to raise their name ID and effectively deliver a message should win. The person who has demonstrated that ability in the past is Ryan Sitton.
Christian and Sitton have one thing in common in the race - they're both talking about Ryan Sitton. Christian has taken a throw everything at the wall and see what sticks approach, attacking Sitton personally on a host of issues. Those attacks have resulted in FALSE ratings from Politifact.
Sitton's core campaign themes are stressing that he's worked in the energy industry his entire professional career and that he's the only experienced candidate in the race. He's focused on talking about how Texas can lead the way to American Energy independence. Sitton has however pointed out Christian's past support for green energy mandates and subsidies most conservative voters find offensive.
With less than a month to go until the May 27th runoff election, Wayne Christian's negative campaign rhetoric will undoubtedly intensify. Manufacturing false claims about your opponent probably isn't the best approach to win the hearts and minds of conservatives and convince them that you're the right person to oversee Texas' most important industry. Ryan Sitton's positive message about Texas leading the way to American energy independence sounds like a winner to us. Time will tell.
Key findings from the April 2014 Baselice and Associates Poll:
- A large majority of voters do not recognize the names Ryan Sitton and Wayne Christian. Specifically, over 70% claim to have never heard of either candidate in the run-off for Railroad Commissioner.
- Only 16% of respondents have decided they are definitely voting for either Sitton (6%) or Christian (10%). That means 84% are either undecided (42%) or causally supporting/leaning toward one of the candidates (42%).
- After hearing more about the candidates, Sitton leads Christian 70% to 7% on the informed ballot test. A majority of each major subgroup switches from undecided or Christian on the initial ballot to favor Sitton on the informed ballot. Significant switch behavior between initial and informed ballot tests occurs when little is known about the candidates and the informative statements about the candidates are revealing. That is the case here.
- The Sitton campaign is in an enviable position of having almost too many powerful messages to deliver. However, only the most persuasive information and contrasts should be delivered, and done so in a disciplined manner.
- Part of the message delivery needs to include that the Railroad Commission oversees oil and gas production in the state of Texas, and that Ryan Sitton has worked in the industry his entire professional career.