Who Will Defeat Trump?

For decades, lying has been a way of life for the Clintons and now the Democrats are on their way to nominate a woman who is facing possible indictments. Maybe Republicans may want to take a second look at Donald Trump since lying and exaggerating his business acumen is part of Trump package as well. Read his recent book and Trump will make the claim that he has never been bankrupt, but the reality is that he has been, or I should say the companies he ran, have been bankrupt four times, the most recent was in 2009. One can always make the case that business leaders have their share of failures, and even Steve Jobs was fired from the company he founded before being asked back, but Trump doesn’t even make the case that he learned something from past mistakes and simply denies the reality that he has ever been bankrupt. On two occasions, one of those bailing him out included a Saudi prince. If we are electing Trump on the basis of his business acumen, then we must have the whole picture and not the picture he paints of himself. Like any businessman or woman, he has had his share of defeats.

How many times have we heard Trump telling us that he predicted the chaos that Bush’s invasion of Iraq caused? There is no record of Trump opposing the war until after the war proved difficult in 2004. The evidence in 2002 and 2003 before the invasion pointed toward Trump supporting the war against Iraq. He lied about his own view of the war in order to make himself look like Nostradamus, but the reality is that like many in 2003, Donald Trump did not predict the outcomes nor was he the only one since Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden both voted for the Gulf War. How Trump viewed the world in 2002 and 2003 matters if it differs from the Trump campaign rhetoric today, for if the Republicans don’t point out the inconsistency, the Democrats certainly will.

I could go on but the point is that Trump is the most vulnerable Republican candidate and he has been lucky in that he has not been challenged consistently as the other Republicans worried more about moving up the greasy pole as opposed to going after the guy on top. Now Cruz and Rubio are forced to take the battle to Trump and Trump is already beginning to go after Rubio with the silly, “Is Rubio a natural born citizen?”

Voters view Trump as the truth teller, but his own past has yet to be examined by his competitors in a thorough matter, and it is time that Republican voters understand the candidate they are about to nominate and make sure that there are no skeletons in the closet. Those include his own past views since he has made significant changes in his view points including immigration in which he has gone from an amnesty supporter to being Mr. “I am stopping illegal immigration”, his views on health care are still appear to be evolving, and his past supports for Democrats officeholders with donation. Will we find out that he had dealing with the Mafia or hired illegals? There have been news stories on these issues and we will find out if these stories will have legs. (Note: I am not saying these stories are true or will pan out but these stories have been already reported and will be explored in greater depths. If there are any truth to these accusations, then Trump’s general campaign will be over and GOP goes over the cliff with Trump.)

Trump is the weakest candidate based on present polls but many Republicans are convinced he can win. His weakness has been detailed in my past pieces but there is one lesson that Trump has shown Republicans, how to approach the forgotten American who has been left behind over the past decade. For many Americans, they don’t have any fond memories of the Bush era just as they have no real love for the present Democratic administration. He has made inroads in a group that has either abandoned the GOP or simply not voted over the past election cycles. He has added excitement to a Party in need of it but we shouldn’t be blind to Trump’s weakness which in a general election would be manifested. Polls have shown that in a one on one with Cruz or Rubio, he would lose so his campaign strategy is simple: keep as many GOP candidates in the race so he can win the nomination. This does show that many Republicans are not yet sold that this is the guy and would many of these Republicans simply stay home rather than vote for Trump. His performance in South Carolina included supporting the Obamacare mandate before switching back to opposing Obamacare, used leftist talking points against George Bush including “Bush lied, People died”, supported government funding for Planned Parenthood and then retreating from some of his more outrageous statements about Bush lied, people died. What we saw was a candidate who is either unsure where he stands or simply lying to gain Republican voters, but where Trump is leading the GOP and the rest of us are still an enigma that needs to be settled.

Trump's margin of error is less than Rubio, Cruz or even Kasich's, and if the Republicans don’t start hammering Trump, the Democrats will, and if the skeletons do appear, it will be too late and we will not lose just the White House but the Senate and the Supreme Court as well. Trump's biggest hope against Hillary is either Hillary being indicted or a major economic collapse similar to 2008. Beyond that, Trump will have the most difficulty in winning a general election. That is a fact at this moment.

Voters need to understand the risk with Trump both in electability or whether his policy will actually benefit the Middle Class voters who are putting their hope in him, and it is up to Kasich, Rubio or Cruz to challenge Trump directly now. Trump is not inevitable or invincible and the majority of Republicans and quite a few independents are not yet sold on the Trump candidacy.